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Full Description
From the authors who accurately predicted the bursting of the global bubble economy comes the definitive look at what lies ahead in 2013 and beyond
Written by the market oracles who predicted, with uncanny accuracy, the global financial meltdown and the economic chain reaction it set in motion, Aftershock offers a vivid picture of what to expect when the world's bubble economy inevitably pops. More importantly, it tells you how to protect your assets before and during the coming Aftershock and how to capitalize on the new opportunities that others will miss.
Building on the valuable insights and proven predictions of their previous books, the authors of Aftershock, Third Edition offer their latest thinking and advice as the economy moves even closer to the coming aftershock.* Explains why and how the stock market, real estate, consumer spending, private debt, dollar, and government debt bubbles will burst, driving up unemployment, devaluing the dollar, and causing deep recession around the globe * Updated to include the latest developments, such as new coverage of monetary stimulus and a more global focus (with special attention to Europe and China) * Offers new actionable insights about protection and profits in an increasingly confusing investment environment
Contents
Executive Summary xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Preface to the Third Edition of Aftershock xv
Introduction: Your Guide to the Third Edition of Aftershock xix
Part 1 The Coming Aftershock 1
Chapter 1 This Recovery Is 100 Percent Fake 3
Isn t a Fake Recovery Better than No Recovery at All? 5
If the Aftershock Has Not Been Canceled, Why Hasn t It Happened Yet? 7
Still Not Sure This Recovery Is 100 Percent Fake? 17
Don t Believe the Stimulus Has to Eventually End? There Is a Limit to What the Government Can Do 23
Wondering Why the Aftershock Hasn t Happened Already? Animal Spirits Are Keeping Are Keeping Us Going 24
Please Prepare Now 27
Chapter 2 America s Bubble Economy 31
Because Our Earlier Books Were Right, Now You Can Be Right, Too 36
Didn t Other Bearish Analysts Get It Right, Too? 39
How the Experts Got It So Wrong 41
Predictions from Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson We Trust These Officials with Our Economy 46
Where We Have Been Wrong 47
Chapter 3 Phase 1: The Bubbles Begin to Burst 53
Bubbles R Us: A Quick Review of America s Bubble Economy 54
From Boom to Bust: The Virtuous Upward Spiral Becomes a Vicious Downward Spiral 60
Pop Goes the Real Estate Bubble 61
Pop Goes the Stock Market Bubble 68
Pop Goes the Private Debt Bubble 72
Pop Goes the Discretionary Spending Bubble 76
The Biggest, Baddest, Bad Loan of Them All 79
Chapter 4 The Market Cliff 83
The Market Cliff Won t Be Just a Down Cycle 84
Hitting the Market Cliff 89
The Last Resort: A Stock Market Holiday 94
When Is the Best Time to Get Out of the Stock Market? 95
Chapter 5 Massive Money Printing Will Eventually Cause Dangerous Inflation So Why Hasn t It Happened Yet? 99
What Is Inflation? 100
What Exactly Is Money Printing? 101
How Does Money Printing Cause Inflation? 102
Central Banks Gone Wild: The World Is Printing Money 104
Where Is Inflation Hiding? 109
1. Lag Factors Delay the Onset of Inflation 109
2. Government Statistics Underreport Inflation 112
3. Strong Motivation to Maintain the Bubble Economy Will Delay Most Inflation Until after the Market Cliff 112
The Arguments against Future Inflation Simply Don t Hold Up 114
This Is Not a Plan, It s a Panic! 121
The Real Problem with Rising Future Inflation: High Interest Rates 123
The Fed s Big Blind Spot: They Don t Understand Where Growth Comes From (Hint: It Doesn t Come from Rising Bubbles or Massive Money Printing) 127
When Will Inflation Begin? When Group Psychology Turns Negative after the Market Cliff 131
The Inflation Deniers Are Liars! 134
Chapter 6 Phase 2: The Aftershock 137
The Dollar Bubble: Hard to See without Bubble-Vision Glasses 138
The Government Debt Bubble Pops 160
The Aftershock 166
The Six Psychological Stages of Denial 167
Is There Any Scenario for a Soft Landing? 172
Chapter 7 Global Mega-Money Meltdown 173
The United States Will Suffer the Least 174
Think of the World s Bubble Economy in Two Categories: Manufacturing and Resource Extraction 175
How the Bursting Bubbles Will Impact the World 179
If the World s Bubble Economy Is Hit Harder than the U.S. Bubble Economy, Won t That Be Good for the Dollar? 188
If the Rest of the World Is Collapsing, Won t That Be Good for Gold? 188
International Investment Recommendations 190
Part 2 Aftershock Dangers and Profits 193
Chapter 8 Covering Your Assets 195
The Three Rules for Not Losing Money 195
These Rules Are Simple but Not Easy! 196
Long Term versus Short Term 199
Rule 1: Exit Stocks Well Before the Market Cliff 201
Rule 2: Stay Away from Real Estate Until after All the Bubbles Pop 207
Rule 3: Avoid Bonds and Most Fixed-Rate Investments as Interest Rates Rise 219
Where s the Best Place to Stash Cash? 221
How Long Must We Follow These Three Rules? 222
Letting Go Is Hard to Do 222
What Else Can I Do to Protect Myself? 225
Remember, Your Net Worth Is Not Your Self-Worth 228
Chapter 9 Cashing In on Chaos 229
Plenty of Profit Opportunities, but They Will Feel Quite Uncomfortable, Even Scary at Times 229
This Economy Is Evolving; Your Investments Should Evolve, Too 230
Three Goals of an Evolving Aftershock Investment Portfolio 232
Reducing Risk with a New Kind of Diversification 233
Timing Is Everything before the Bubbles Pop, but It Won t Be Perfect 247
Aftershock Investing after the Bubbles Pop: Gold, Foreign Currencies, and Foreign Bonds 248
Putting It All Together: Aftershock in Action 253
Chapter 10 Aftershock Jobs and Businesses 257
The Rising Bubble Economy Created Huge Job Growth; Now the Falling Bubble Economy Means Fewer Jobs 258
Conventional Wisdom about Future Job Growth Is Based on Faith that the Future Will Be Like the Past 260
Why Conventional Wisdom on Jobs Is Wrong 261
What s a Savvy Aftershock Investor to Do? 262
The Falling Bubbles Will Have Varying Impacts on Three Broad Economic Sectors 265
Should I Go to College? 274
Opportunities after the Bubbles Pop: Cashing In on Distressed Assets 275
Dig Your Well before You Are Thirsty 277
Chapter 11 Understanding Our Problems Is the First Step Toward Solving Our Problems 279
If You Don t Understand Why an Economy Grows, You Can t Understand Why It Doesn t Grow 279
You Need to See the Big Picture before You Start to Focus 280
Key Breakthroughs in the History of Economic Thought 282
Economics Needs a Breakthrough Big-Picture Idea like Geology Needed Continental Drift 289
So Why Aren t We Getting an Alfred Wegener or a Breakthrough Idea like Continental Drift? 291
Economists Have Become Academia s Version of Financial Cheerleaders 291
The Demands to Get Tenure and the Rewards of the Good Life after Tenure Have Delivered a One-Two Punch to Creative Economic Thought 292
Where to Now? Answer: Economics Needs to Move from Being a Collection of Competing Philosophies to Being a Unified Science 295
Four Key Elements for Making Economics More of a Science 297
Where Do We Stand Today in Making This Transition? 301 The Economics Profession Does Not Want to Make This Transition 302
The Solution to the Lack of Interest in Making Important Changes in Economics: The Coming Aftershock 304
Chapter 12 Our Predictions Have Been Mostly Accurate, So Why Do Some People Still Dislike Them? 307
It s Not a Cheerleading Book 309
It s Not a Complex Book (Although It Is Based on Complex Analysis) 310
It s Not a Crazy Book 313
It s Not an Academic Book 313
It s Not Suggesting Armageddon 314
It s Not a Reality-Denying Book 314
Us versus the Comforters: How Aftershock Stacks Up against Other Bearish Books 315
Epilogue: Say Good-Bye to the Age of Excess 323
Appendix: Are the Bond, Stock, and Gold Markets Manipulated? 327
Bibliography 339
Index 345
