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Full Description
Acclaimed investment experts Peter Treadway and Michael Wong explain how to protect your investments and even profit from the coming sovereign default crises A major sovereign default crisis is looming for the so-called developed economies of the world. The result will be a major redistribution of economic wealth and an overhaul of the international financial system on an epic scale. Investing in the Age of Sovereign Defaults: How to Preserve your Wealth in the Coming Crisis explains what lies ahead, and offers invaluable suggestions to help investors avoid massive losses. * Explains why the West is headed for a major default crisis and how investors can protect themselves * Contends that the value of gold will continue to rise and that sooner or later government debt, including that of the U.S. and Japan, will be shunned * Written by investment experts Peter Treadway and Michael Wong The days of the economic status quo are coming to an end. Investing in the Age of Sovereign Defaults shows investors what's coming and what investors must do if they want to escape unscathed.
Contents
Acknowledgments xi Preface xiii Chapter 1 Democracies Fatal Attraction of Populism 1 Default, an Expanded Definition 2 Debt Default in History A Recurring Theme 3 Nobody Likes a Lender 4 Populism, Democracy, and the Road to Default 9 The Demographics Are Awful 14 The Special Roles of the United States 15 Universal Suffrage The Holy Grail or the Villain? 16 Universal Suffrage The American Story 18 Rational Economic Man? 20 Irrational Voters? 22 Is a Meritocracy Good for Everyone? 23 Do We Want a Meritocracy? 24 Public-Sector Unions We Vote for You, You Reward Us 25 Debt and Macroeconomics 27 Hyman Minsky: Another View of Debt and Macroeconomics 29 Culture Counts 31 One Note of Optimism 32 Chapter 2 The Sorry Fiscal State of the Advanced Countries 35 Sovereign Debt/GDP 36 Outlook for the United States 39 Dismal Demographics 41 Race and Ethnicity An American Complication 43 Unfunded Entitlements and Dismal Accounting 44 And Then There Are the American States 52 The Ownership of US Government Securities 53 If Something Cannot Go on Forever, Then It Will Stop 53 Europe The Default Process Has Already Begun 54 The Euro What Should Have Been 57 The United Kingdom Not a Euro Country 64 Japan The Enigma 65 Chapter 3 A Diversion to India and China 69 India The Democratic Surprise 69 China Not a Democracy, Populism Less of a Problem 74 Chapter 4 The International Monetary System In Desperate Need of Repair 83 Let s Start with History and Economics 84 The Gold Standard in Theory The Price-Specie Flow Mechanism 86 The Sad Evolution of the International Monetary System 89 The International Monetary System Must Change But to What? 97 Chapter 5 The Road to Worthless Paper Money 105 China The Birthplace of (Worthless) Paper Money 106 A Persian Diversion 108 The American Story Honest Abe Prints Some Money 108 German Hyperinflation Is This the Prototype? 110 Modern Inflation 113 Are We Really in Deflation? 113 Measuring Inflation Are the Numbers Really Higher? 114 Chapter 6 An Overall Assessment of the Current Investing Scene 119 The Bad News 120 The Good News and Some Long-Term Trends (Which Are Mostly Good News) 122 The Unknowns 123 Supply-Side Reforms Must be Enacted 124 Taxation Americans versus Everybody Else 127 Chapter 7 Investment Survival in the Age of Defaults 131 Asset Classes for Investment Survival 132 Fixed-Income Securities 153 European Equities 154 What about American TIPS? 155 Gold Don t Get Carried Away 155 Commodities/Resources Not a Simple Story 158 Selected Big-Cap Nonfinancial, Global Companies 159 Large Global Banks Avoid 161 Equities from Selected Emerging Markets 168 Appendix A A Quantitative Approach to Sovereign Risk Assessment 177 About the Author 209 About the Contributor 211 Index 213
