世論調査：意思決定者のためのガイド Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion : A Guide for Decision-Makers (Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences)

Young, Clifford/ Ziemer, Kathryn

Cambridge University Press（2024/07発売）

Cambridge University Press（2024/07発売）

• 製本 Paperback:紙装版/ペーパーバック版／ページ数 200 p.
• 言語 ENG
• 商品コード 9781108790000
• DDC分類 303.38

Full Description

A vast literature exists on theories of public opinion - how to measure, analyze, predict, and influence it; however, there is no synthesis of best practices for interpreting public opinion: existing knowledge is disparate and spread across many disciplines. Polls, Pollsters, and Public Opinion presents a systematic analytical approach for understanding, predicting, and engaging public opinion. It tells the story through the eyes of the pollster and draws an analytical road map for examining public opinion, both conceptually and practically. Providing a theoretical and conceptual foundation, as well as debunking popular myths, this book delves into the science of polling, offering tools analysts can use to assess the quality of polls. It also introduces methods that can be used to predict elections and other socio-political outcomes while understanding the nuances of messaging, engaging, and moving public opinion.

Contents

1. The Three-Hatted Pollster; Part I Fundamentals of Public Opinion: 2. What is Public Opinion?; 3. Attitude Formation at the Individual Level; 4. When Public Opinion is Stable and When it is Not; Part II. The Pollster as Data Scientist: 5. Understanding Bias and Error; 6. Assessing a Single Poll in the 2016 US Presidential Election; 7. The Case of Grexit and Assessing the Polls in Aggregate; Part III. The Pollster as Fortune Teller: 8. Cognitive Biases in Prediction; 9. Triangulated Election Prediction; 10. Public Opinion as a Decision Input for Other Outcomes; Part IV. The Pollster as Spin Doctor: 11. Engaging Public Opinion: Theory and Practice; 12. Communicating in the 2022 Brazilian Presidential Election; 13. The Pollster in Society.