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Full Description
In a world where we are constantly being asked to make decisions based on incomplete information, facility with basic probability is an essential skill. This book provides a solid foundation in basic probability theory designed for intellectually curious readers and those new to the subject. Through its conversational tone and careful pacing of mathematical development, the book balances a charming style with informative discussion. This text will immerse the reader in a mathematical view of the world, giving them a glimpse into what attracts mathematicians to the subject in the first place. Rather than simply writing out and memorizing formulas, the reader will come out with an understanding of what those formulas mean, and how and when to use them. Readers will also encounter settings where probabilistic reasoning does not apply or where intuition can be misleading. This book establishes simple principles of counting collections and sequences of alternatives, and elaborates on these techniques to solve real world problems both inside and outside the casino. Pair this book with the HarvardX online course for great videos and interactive learning: https://harvardx.link/fat-chance.
Contents
Part I. Counting: 1. Simple counting; 2. The multiplication principle; 3. The subtraction principle; 4. Collections; 5. Games of chance; Interlude; 6. The binomial theorem; 7. Advanced counting; Part II. Probability: 8. Expected value; 9. Conditional probability; 10. Unfair coins and loaded dice; 11. Geometric probability; Part III. Probability in the Large: 12. Games and their payoffs; 13. The normal distribution; 14. Don't try this at home.
