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Full Description
This pioneering book analyzes the ability of narratives to help forecast stock market performance. Nicholas Mangee delves into the forecasting component of the novelty-narrative hypothesis (NNH) and its two pillars of relevance realization and contextualized meaning, using a wide range of empirical evidence to demonstrate how narratives can help inform investment strategies.
Chapters examine the forecasting element of the NNH in the context of real-world investment scenarios, drawing on detailed case studies, news event classification, and online search data. They shed light on the significant yet contingent ways in which narratives predict firm, industry, and aggregate market outcomes; improve portfolio performance over time; and reduce the degree of instability in expected return regressions. Challenging dominant paradigms, Mangee provides a rational role for sentiment in stock market forecasting, emphasizing the importance of the interaction between sentiment and narrative dynamics in explaining future fundamentals and returns.
Students and academics in financial economics and regulation, economic psychology, risk and uncertainty, and economic thought will greatly benefit from this comprehensive exploration of stock market narratives. This incisive book is also an invaluable resource for traders, fund managers, policymakers, and other practitioners interested in enhancing forecasting strategies.
Contents
Contents
Preface
1 Stock market forecasting under the novelty-narrative
hypothesis
2 Why narratives are needed when forecasting stock markets
3 Benefits of narrative-based forecasting
4 Instability of stock market predictability: a nod toward
narratives
5 Stock market literature on narratives
6 Narratives, the fed, and future stock market performance
7 Corporate narrative shifts and implications for forecasting
8 Firm forecasting based on industry narratives
9 Firm forecasting based on firm and market narratives
10 Narratives, instability, and portfolio management
11 Narratives and future industry and market outcomes
12 Macroeconomic and political narratives and future outcomes
13 Using narratives to forecast fundamentals
14 Current narratives about the possible future
15 How narratives may shape future research
References
