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Full Description
Uncertainty is a part of every decision we make, from the everyday to the high-stakes, from personal choices to professional strategy. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty offers a clear, practical approach to dealing with the unknown without getting stuck or overwhelmed.
Rather than treating uncertainty as a barrier, this book invites readers to see it as a constant companion—something to work with, not work against. Drawing on proven tools, real-world examples, and a wealth of practical insight, it shows how to make thoughtful, informed decisions even when information is incomplete, priorities are competing, and the path forward feels anything but clear.
This is not a theory-heavy treatise. It's a textbook guide for real people facing real decisions. Grounded in decision science but written for a broad audience, it bridges the gap between technical complexity and everyday practicality. Whether you're leading a team, managing risk, shaping policy, or simply trying to make better personal choices, this book meets you where you are—with tools that work, language that makes sense, and encouragement to move forward with clarity and confidence.
Inside you'll find:
Straightforward frameworks to help you recognize and manage different types of uncertainty
Practical tools and techniques you can use right away to make sound decisions in fast-moving or high-pressure situations
Case studies and examples that bring the concepts to life and show how they apply in work, leadership, and daily life
Fresh perspectives on failure, bias, and risk, helping you not only avoid common pitfalls but turn setbacks into sources of insight
If you've ever hesitated at a crossroads, second-guessed a big decision, or wished for more clarity in a world that rarely offers it, this book is for you. The Art of Making Decisions Under Uncertainty is your companion in making better choices when certainty is out of reach but a good decision is still within your grasp.
Contents
PART ONE Introduction to Decision Making Under Uncertainty. 1 Why Decisions Under Uncertainty Matter. 2 Decisions: How They Are Made and Why They Fail. 3 Uncertainty: What It Is and Why It Matters. 4 Risk: The Link Between Uncertainty and Decisions. 5 Uncertain Outcomes. PART TWO Psychological and Cultural Aspects of Uncertainty. 6 The Psychology of Decisions: Fast vs. Slow Thinking. 7 Heuristics and Biases: Why They Fail Under Uncertainty. 8 Innumeracy: Why It Limits Understanding of Uncertainty. 9 Building a Culture That Embraces Uncertainty. 10 Uncertain Aspects of Decision Making. 11 The Illusion of Precision. 12 Ignoring Uncertainty. PART THREE Analytical Tools and Techniques. 13 Managing Information and Uncertainty. 14 How Risk Preferences Drive Decisions. 15 Risk Analysis. 16 Think More Probabilistically. 17 Characterizing Uncertainty: The Key to Risk-Informed Decision Making. 18 Tools for Quantitative Characterizations of Uncertainty. 19 Expert Elicitation: Managing Irreducible Uncertainty. 20 Sensitivity Analysis. 21 The Monte Carlo Process and Scenario Planning. 22 Leveraging Big Data, Analytics, and AI to Combat Uncertainty. PART FOUR Strategies and Tactics for Effective Decision Making. 23 Strategies and Tactics for Addressing Uncertainty. 24 Socialize Asking for Evidence. 25 Change the Decision-Making Meeting. 26 Knowing When to Decide. 27 Power-Down Decision Making. 28 Turning Failure into Insight. PART FIVE Special Topics. 29 Uncertainty in Real-Time Decision Making. 30 False Information. Index
