Tools of Trust : Business Forecasting in the Twentieth Century (Historical Perspectives on Modern Economics)

Lenel, Laetitia

Cambridge University Press（2026/07発売）

• 製本 Hardcover:ハードカバー版／ページ数 470 p.
• 言語 ENG
• 商品コード 9781009483193

Full Description

How is it possible that economists generally fail to foresee recession, yet forecasting has never lost its appeal and importance? Using a combination of published scientific and technical literature, newspaper articles as well as archival material from thirty-three research sites in six countries, Tools of Trust looks for an answer to this question. It tells the history of business forecasting in the twentieth century, tracing the emergence and fundamental transformations of forecasting techniques and their role in economic and political decision-making. It investigates how the role of business forecasting has changed and how this has transformed economic and political decision-making. Offering a nuanced understanding of the crucial role forecasting plays in managing economic uncertainty, this book examines how unforeseen economic crises have paradoxically reinforced the importance of forecasting, turning it into an indispensable tool to reduce economic uncertainty and stabilize the capitalist order.

Contents

Introduction; 1. Capturing: The Harvard Index of General Business Conditions; 2. Measuring: The Leading Indicators Established at the NBER; 3. Stimulating: Macroeconometric Modeling in the Netherlands and Beyond; 4. Collecting: Surveys in Business, Journalism and Academia; 5. Shaping: The Publication of Forecasts by Central Banks; 6. Conclusion.