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Full Description
The authors consider how and by how much China's stellar economic performance might be impaired by eight potential adversities that China may face in the next decade.
Contents
Unemployment, poverty, social unrest xi -- Economic effects of corruption xii -- HIV-AIDS and epidemic disease xii -- Water resources and pollution xii -- Energy consumption and prices xiii -- Fragility of the financial system and state-owned enterprisesxiii -- Possible shrinkage of foreign direct investment xiii -- Conflictual adversities: Taiwan and other potential conflicts xiv -- Acronyms xvii -- Potential adversities confronting China's continued economic growth 1 -- Part I. China's institutional and structural fault lines -- Massive unemployment and rural poverty -- Economic effects of corruption -- Part II. Sectoral fault lines -- Epidemic disease: a wild card in China's economic future? -- China's health progress since the liberationo: a long march against infectious and parasitic disease -- China's current health profile in international and geographic perspective -- Prospects for epidemic disease in contemporary China : the risks of behavior-born communicable illnesses -- Modeling possibletrajectories for an HIV epidemic in China -- Economic implications for China of HIV breakout -- Water resources and pollution -- Estimating water supply and demand -- Water resources and regional disparities -- Demand estimation for agriculture, industry, and municipality -- Identifying the impacts of flood, water shortage and pollution on the economy -- Impacts on agriculture -- Impacts on industry, municipal water supply, and public health -- Alternatives to abate the problem, and the expected cost and benefits -- Giant water diversion from South to North -- Water saving technologies and flood control -- A market-approach to demand and pollution management -- Water treatment and recycling -- Economic and security implications -- Impact of water problems on productivity, capital and labor -- Security: food sufficiency and regional conflicts -- Future scenarios and possible adversities -- GDP effects of an energy price shock -- Some basic data on the Chinese energy sector and Chinese GDP -- Oil priceeffects of a severe oil supply disruption -- Effects on Chinese GDP -- Oil market effects -- Part II. Financial fault lines -- China's fragile financial system and the state-owned enterprises -- An ineffectual central bank -- A fragile commercial banking system -- Unregulated financial institutions -- Adverse scenarios: financial crises and slacken economic growth -- Possible shrinkage of foreign capital inflows -- Introduction: some relevant background -- What will affect FDI in China in the 2002-2010 period? -- The internal political and economic environment -- External influences on FDI in China.
