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Full Description
This book places the 2010 elections in Florida in historical context and offers insight into and an explanation for the substantial gains made by the Republicans that year. This book provides narratives of gubernatorial, U.S. Senatorial, congressional, and state legislative campaigns along with empirical data on voter registration, voter turnout, and the electoral behavior of groups in the Florida electorate. It also speaks to the importance of national forces on state level elections and the impact of external advocacy groups in such elections.
Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Tables v
Preface vii
Part I: The 2010 Elections in Florida: It's the Economy Stupid! 1
1The 2010 Statewide Elections: A Unique Year 3
The Martinez Decision 3
The National Economy and Florida Politics 4
The Race for the U.S. Senate: The Candidates 5
The Race for Governor: The Candidates 6
The Race for Statewide Office: Attorney General, Chief
Financial Commissioner of Agriculture and Chief Financial
Officer 7
Part II: The Race for the U.S. Senate 9
2The Campaign for the U.S. Senate: Background and Context 11
The Primary Campaigns 11
The Democratic Primary: Background and Context 16
The Outcome of the Democratic Primary 22
The U.S. Senate General Election 22
The Outcome of the Senate Race 29
3The Senatorial Election Results 31
Alternative Voting: Early and Absentee Ballots 31
Patterns in Senatorial Elections: Party Success 32
The County-by-County Outcome 33
Part III: The Race for Governor 43
4Social Groups and the Senatorial Vote: 2006, 2008, 2010 45
How Social Groups Voted in the Senatorial Race 45
Gender, Age, and Race 45
Changing in Voting Coalitions between 2006 and 2010 47
5 The Race for Governor: Strategy 53
The Republican Primary 54
The Outcome of the Primary 58
The General Election for Governor 59
6 The Gubernatorial Election Results 65
The County-by-County Vote 65
Voter Turnout 66
7 Group Voting in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election 69
How Social Groups Voted in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election 69
Voting Coalitions, 1998 through 2010 71
Part IV: The Races for Other Statewide Offices 83
8 The Race for Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer and 85
Officer and Commissioner of Agriculture
The Primary Campaign for Attorney General 85
The General Election for Attorney General 91
The Race for Commissioner of Agriculture 97
Election Results for Statewide Offices 99
Part V: The 2010 Congressional Elections 103
9 The Campaigns for Congress 105
Introduction 105
District by District Analysis 106
The Pattern of Outcomes 122
Explaining the Results 124
Part VI: The 2010 State Legislative Elections 141
10 The Campaigns for the State Legislature 143
Introduction 143
The Parameters of the 2010 Election 143
Overall Results: Legislative Races with Two-Party
Competition 145
Competitive Races in 2010: House Seats 145
Competitive Senate Races 150
Additional Incumbent Losses 151
Patterns of Outcomes 153
Explaining the Results 155
Part VII: The Florida Elections of 2010 in Perspective 159
11The 2010 Election and the Future of Florida Politics 161
Introduction 161
Legislative Apportionment 162
Minor Party Candidates 165
Term Limits 166
Bibliography 167
Index 173
