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基本説明
Utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war.
Full Description
The question of what causes war has concerned statesmen since the time of Thucydides. The Steps to War utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war. In this book, Paul Senese and John Vasquez test one of the major behavioral explanations of war--the steps to war--by identifying the various factors that put two states at risk for war. Focusing on the era of classic international politics from 1816 to 1945, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War period, they look at the roles of territorial disputes, alliances, rivalry, and arms races and show how the likelihood of war increases significantly as these risk factors are combined. Senese and Vasquez argue that war is more likely in the presence of these factors because they increase threat perception and put both sides into a security dilemma. The Steps to War calls into question certain prevailing realist beliefs, like peace through strength, demonstrating how threatening to use force and engaging in power politics is more likely to lead to war than to peace.
Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xv Introduction 1 PART I: Foundations Chapter 1: The Steps to War 7 Chapter 2: The Evolution of a Research Program: Research Design 37 PART II: Territory and War Chapter 3: From Territorial Claims to Territorial Disputes: Testing for Selection Effects 75 Chapter 4: Territory, Contiguity, and Their Interaction: A Contingent Model of Interstate Conflict 104 PART III: Power Politics and War Chapter 5: The Probability of War between Nation-States 129 Chapter 6: The Probability of Crisis Escalation 179 Chapter 7: Exploring Interactions in the Steps to War 215 PART IV: Conclusion Chapter 8: Explaining War, Thinking about Peace 251 References 281 Name Index 301 Subject Index 307
