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Full Description
The premise of this book is that most activity in everyday life and work is based on tasks that are novel, infrequent in our experience, or variable with respect to the action to be taken. Such tasks require decisions to be made and actions taken in the face of ambiguous or incomplete information. Time pressure is frequently great and penalties for failure are severe. Examples include investing in markets, controlling industrial accidents, and detecting fraud. The environments in which such tasks occur defy a definition of optimal performance, yet the benefits of successful decision making are considerable. The authors refer to domains without criteria for optimal performance as competency-based and describe the able behaviour of individuals who work in them by the term competence. The chapters examine the propositions that metacognitive processes give structure to otherwise ill-structured tasks and are fundamental enablers of decision-making performance.
Contents
Introduction Kip Smith, James Shanteau and Paul Johnson; Part I. Metacognition - Self: 1. The conversion decision in minimally invasive surgery: knowing your limits and limiting your risks Cynthia Dominguez, John Flach, Patricia Lake, Daniel McKellar and Margaret Dunn; 2. Competence in weather forecasting Rebecca Pliske, Beth Crandall and Gary Klein; Part II. Metacognition - Others: 3. Managing Risk in Social Exchange Stefano Grazioli, Kip Smith and Paul Johnson; 4. Emergency decision making Jan Skriver, Rhona Flin and Lynne Martin; 5. Designing for competence Patricia Jones; Part III. Enablers of Competence: 6. Argumentation and decisions David Hardman and Peter Ayton; 7. Representation of uncertainty and change: three case studies with experts Elke Kurz, Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage; 8. The rise of consensus and the virtue of consistency David Weiss and James Shanteau.
