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Full Description
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. 'Good enough' forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:
What makes a good forecast?
What period should a forecast cover?
How frequently should it be updated?
What information should it contain?
What is the best way to produce a forecast?
How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
How should a forecast be used?
How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
How accurate does it need to be?
How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
Do you need multiple forecasts?
What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.
Praise for Future Ready
"Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward"
—Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC
"Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one"
—Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro
"A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement."
—Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting
"In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market."
—Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
Contents
Table of Figures xi
Foreword xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgements xxv
Section 1 'Why?' 1
Chapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I've Seen 3
Chapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17
Section 2 Principles 33
Chapter 2 Mastering Purpose - the Cassandra Paradox 35
Chapter 3 Mastering Time - Delay and Decision 57
Chapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87
Chapter 5 Mastering Measurement - Learning to Love Error 125
Chapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151
Section 3 'Praxis' 179
Chapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183
Theme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183
Theme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198
Theme #3 'Whose job is it anyway?' Roles and responsibilities 210
Section 4 Transformation 219
Chapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221
Chapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233
Chapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243
Chapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257
Glossary 261
Appendix 1 - Design Principles: A Summary 267
Appendix 2 - Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275
References 289
Index 295
