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Full Description
Professional investors are bombarded on a day to day basis with assertions about the role liquidity is playing and will play in determining prices in the financial markets. Few, if any, of the providers or recipients of such advice can truly claim to understand the well-springs of such liquidity and the transmission mechanisms through which it impacts asset prices. This groundbreaking new book explores the belief that at the core of liquidity there is a force which exerts individuals to effect a financial transaction when they would not otherwise do so. Understanding this force of compulsion is a key to understanding a financial market when it appears to be behaving irrationally. This book will enable new and seasoned investors to develop an understanding of the factors, so that costly mistakes can be avoided without the lesson of experience.
Contents
Foreword by Russell Napier xiii
Acknowledgements xvii
About the Authors xix
List of Tables, Figures and Charts xxiii
Introduction 1
Appetiser 1
Structure of the book 2
Language and jargon 2
Academic theories 3
Modern Portfolio Theory 3
The Efficient Markets Hypothesis 4
Forms of investment analysis 4
Fundamental analysis 4
Monetary analysis 5
Technical analysis 5
The intuitive approach 6
What the book is going to say 6
PART I THE LIQUIDITY THEORY 9
1 Types of Trades in Securities 11
2 Persistent Liquidity Trades 15
3 Extrapolative Expectations 21
4 Discounting Liquidity Transactions 25
5 Cyclical Changes Associated with Business Cycles 37
6 Shifts in the Savings Demand for Money 43
PART II FINANCIAL BUBBLES AND DEBT DEFLATION 49
7 Financial Bubbles 51
8 Debt Deflation 55
PART III ELABORATION 59
9 Creation of Printing-press Money 61
10 Control of Fountain-pen Money and the Counterparts of Broad Money 65
11 Modern Portfolio Theory and the Nature of Risk 71
12 Technical Analysis and Crowds 81
13 The Intuitive Approach to Asset Prices 87
14 Forms of Analysis 93
PART IV EVIDENCE AND PRACTICAL EXAMPLES 101
15 The UK Markets Prior to 1972 103
16 The US Equity Market 1960-2002 109
17 Two Forecasts 113
18 Debt Deflation, Practical Experience 119
PART V MONITORING DATA 121
19 Monitoring Current Data for the Monetary Aggregates 123
20 Monitoring Data for the Supply of Money 139
21 The Different Sectors of the Economy 145
Glossary 149
References 157
Index 159
