基本説明
A sample collection of papers from talks that were presented. The chapters are organized around the broad hurricane-climate themes of empirical evidence, statistical methods, and numerical models. A major focus of the conference was the importance of statistical models for understanding how hurricane activity is changing and may change in the future. Emphasis was also placed on evidence of low-frequency swings in hurricane activity using historical and geological records.
Full Description
Recent studies suggest that tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increase in the North Atlantic. The increase is correlated with an increase in ocean temperature. A debate concerns the nature of these increases with some scientists attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation and others suggesting climate change related to anthropogenic increases in forcing from greenhouse gases.
A Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change was held during the spring of 2007 on the island of Crete that brought together leading academics and researchers on both sides of the scientific debate to discuss new research and express opinions about what will happen in the future with regard to hurricane activity. This proceedings volume highlights the state-of-the-science research into various aspects of the hurricane-climate connection. It is likely that the science presented here will lead to new research that will help answer crucial questions about our sustainable future.
Contents
Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones.- Electrification in Hurricanes: Implications for Water Vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer.- Long-Term Natural Variability of Tropical Cyclones in Australia.- Statistical Link Between United States Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Solar Cycle.- Five Year Prediction of the Number of Hurricanes that make United States Landfall.- A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields.- Probability of Hurricane Intensification and United States Hurricane Landfall under Conditions of Elevated Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures.- Wavelet-Lag Regression Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.- Network Analysis of U.S. Hurricanes.- Migration of the Tropical Cyclone Zone throughout the Holocene.- Aerosol Effects on Lightning and Intensity of Landfalling Hurricanes.- Response of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Global Warming in an IPCC AR4 Scenario.- Risk of Tropical Cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in a Climate Change Scenario.- A Fast Non-Empirical Tropical Cyclone Identification Method.- Boundary Layer Model for Moving Tropical Cyclones.- Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming in a General Circulation Model.- Relationship between ENSO and North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency Simulated in a Coupled General Circulation Model.- Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and Intensity Forecasting.- Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States.- The Science and Politics Problem: Policymaking, Climate Change and Hurricanes.
