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Full Description
As tensions continue to rise between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan, numerous analysts and officials have warned of a growing risk of military conflict, which could potentially draw in the United States. How worried should we be about a war in the Taiwan Strait?
Scott L. Kastner offers a comprehensive analytical account of PRC-Taiwan relations that sheds new light on the prospects for cross-strait military conflict. He examines several key regional trends that have complex implications for stability, including deepening economic integration, the shifting balance of military power, uncertainty about the future of U.S. commitment, and domestic political changes in both the PRC and Taiwan. Kastner argues that the risks of conflict are real but should not be exaggerated. Several distinct pathways could lead to the breakout of hostilities, and the mechanisms that might allay one type of conflict do not necessarily apply to others—yet war is anything but inevitable. Although changes to the balance of power introduce risks, powerful mitigating factors remain in place and there are plausible steps to reduce the likelihood of military conflict.
Drawing on both international relations theory and close empirical analysis of regional trends, this book provides vital perspective on how a war in the Taiwan Strait could occur—and how one could be avoided.
Contents
Acknowledgments
List of Abbreviations
Introduction: Rumors of War in the Taiwan Strait
Part I: Past and Future Trends in Cross-Strait Relations
1. Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait
2. The Shifting Balance of Military Power in the Taiwan Strait
3. The U.S. Commitment to Taiwan
4. Domestic Dynamics in China and Taiwan
Part II: Assessing the Prospects for Conflict and Peace
5. Modeling Cross-Strait Relations
6. The Problem of Taiwan Revisionism
7. The Problem of PRC Revisionism
Conclusion: The Most Dangerous Place on Earth?
Notes
References
Index
