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基本説明
A new look at how projects can be successfully aligned with the desired direction; how sufficient, appropriate and valid information can be gathered at the front-end; how information can be analysed; and finally how decisions can be made.
Full Description
An in-depth look at how to improve decisions on major projects at the concept stage, when there is scant information available. This book describes how to evaluate judgemental information. It looks at how scant information can actually be a strength, and can help establish a broad overall perspective.
Contents
PART I: INTRODUCTION Decisions Made on Scant Information: Overview; T.Williams Projects, their Quality at Entry - and Challenges in the Front-end Phase; K.Samset PART II: ALIGNING PROJECTS Implementing Strategy through Project Management: The Importance of Managing the Project Front-end; P. Morris Scenarios Planning; K. van der Heijden Up-front Assessment of Needs; P.Naess Front-end Alignment of Projects - Doing the Right Project; T.Cooke-Davies Using Soft Systems Methodology to Structure Project Definition; M.Winter PART III: GENERATING INFORMATION Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development; B.Flyvbjerg Decision Behaviour - Improving Expert Judgement; G.Kirkebøen Useful Heuristics; B.Scheibehenne& B.von Helversen Expert Judgment of Probability and Risk; G.Wright, F.Bolger,& G.Rowe Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems; G.Parnell Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions under Uncertainty; R.Cooke PART IV: ANALYSING INFORMATION Exploratory Quantitative Analysis of Emergent Problems with Scant Information; T.Bedford Analyzing Information: Techniques and Analyses; B.Andersen Parametric Analysis; P.Pugh PART V: MAKING DECISIONS The Impact of New Information; K.Sunnevaag The Complexity of Decision-making in Large Projects with Multiple Partners: Be Prepared to Change; R.Miller& B.Hobbs From Analysis to Decision - Economic Assessment; K.Hagen
