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This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations.
Over the past half century, the behavior of German voters has changed profoundly - at first rather gradually, but during the last decade at accelerated speed. Electoral decision-making has become much more volatile, rendering election outcomes less predictable. Party system fragmentation intensified sharply. The success of the AfD put an end to Germany's exceptionality as one of the few European countries without a strong right-wing populist party. Utilizing a wide range of data compiled by the German Longitudinal Election Study, the book examines changing voters' behavior in the context of changing parties, campaigns, and media during the period of its hitherto most dramatically increased fluidity at the 2009, 2013, and 2017 federal elections. Guided by the notions of realignment and dealignment the study addresses three questions: How did the turbulences that increasingly characterize German electoral politics come about? How did they in turn condition voters' decision-making? How were voters' attitudes and choices affected by situational factors that pertained to the specifics of particular elections? The Changing German Voter demonstrates how traditional cleavages lost their grip on voters and a new socio-cultural line of conflict became the dominant axis of party competition. A series of major crises, but also programmatic shifts of the established parties promoted this development. It led to a segmentation of the party system that pits the right-wing populist AfD against the traditional parties. The book also demonstrates the relevance of coalition preferences, candidate images as well as media and campaign effects for voters' attitudes, beliefs, and preferences.
Contents
Part I: Introduction
1: Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Harald Schoen, Bernhard Weßels, and Christof Wolf: A New Era of Electoral Instability
Part II: A Fragmenting Party System
2: Martin Elff and Sigrid Roßteutscher: All gone? Change and Persistence in the Impact of Social Cleavages on Voting Behavior in Germany since 1949
3: Bernhard Weßels: Leaving the Space - Opening the Gap? Electoral Effects of Parties' and Voters' Repositioning
4: Lars-Christopher Stövsand, Melanie Dietz, Sigrid Roßteutscher, and Philipp Scherer: Issue Salience and Vote Choice: A Cultural Turn?
5: Lea Gärtner, Harald Schoen, and Alexander Wuttke: Ties That No Longer Bind? Effects and Responsiveness of Party Attachments in a Period of Crises
Part III: Challenged Voters
6: Aiko Wagner and Josephine Lichteblau: A New Player in the Game: Changing Electoral Competition in Germany
7: Simon Ellerbrock: Partisan Agreement and Disagreement in Voters' Discussant Networks: Contextual Constraints and Partisan Selectivity in a Changing Electorate
8: Reinhold Melcher: (In-)Consistent Voting in the 2009, 2013 and 2017 German Federal Elections
9: Sascha Huber and Robert Welz: Dynamics of Coalition Preferences and Vote Choices
Part IV: Situational Voting
10: Agatha Kratz, Maria Preißinger, and Harald Schoen: Changing Crises, Changing Votes? Problem Priorities, Party Competence, and Electoral Behavior in Germany, 2009-2017
11: Nils Jungmann, Ina Bieber, Manuela Blumenberg, and Konstantin Glinitzer: The Push and Pull of Political Leaders: Changing Candidate Evaluations and Vote Switching between the 2013 and 2017 Federal Elections
12: Jürgen Maier, Michaela Maier, and Thorsten Faas: Do Televised Debates Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence from the 2009, 2013, and 2017 German Federal Elections
13: Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck and Alexander Staudt: Media Biases and Voter Attitudes during the 2009, 2013, and 2017 Federal Election Campaigns
14: Julia Partheymüller and Richard Johnston: Plus ça Change? Stability amid Volatility in German Campaigns
Part V: Conclusion
15: Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck, Sigrid Roßteutscher, Harald Schoen, Bernhard Weßels, and Christof Wolf: The Changing German Voter
