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Full Description
Low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa present unique monetary policy challenges, from the high share of volatile food in consumption to underdeveloped financial markets; however most academic and policy work on monetary policy is aimed at much richer countries. Can economic models and methods invented for rich countries even be adapted and applied here? How does and should monetary policy work in sub-Saharan African? Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa answers these questions and provides practical tools and policy guidance to respond to the complex challenges of this region.
Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made great progress in stabilizing inflation over the past two decades. As they have achieved a degree of basic macroeconomic stability, policymakers are looking to avoid policy misalignments and respond appropriately to shocks in order to achieve stability and growth. Officially, they often have adopted "money targeting" frameworks, a regime that has long disappeared from almost all advanced and even emerging-market discussions. In practice, though, they are in many cases finding current regimes lacking, with opaque and sometimes inconsistent objectives, inadequate transmission of policy to the economy, and difficulties in responding to supply shocks. Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa takes a new approach by applying dynamic general equilibrium models suitably adapted to reflect key features of low-income countries for the analysis of monetary policy in sub-Saharan African countries.
Using a progressive approach derived from the International Monetary Fund's extensive practice and research, Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa seeks to address what we know about the empirics of monetary transmission in low-income countries, how monetary policy can work in countries characterized by underdeveloped financial markets and opaque policy regimes, and how we can use empirical and theoretical methods largely derived in advanced countries to answer these questions. It then uses these key topics to guide policymakers as they attempt to adjust food price, terms of trade, aid shocks, and the effects of the global financial crisis.
Contents
1: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
2: Martin Brownbridge and Louis Kasekende: Inflation Targeting in Uganda: What Lessons Can We Learn from Five Years of Experience?
Section I: Empirical Evidence
3: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Introduction to Section I
4: Giovanni Melina and Rafael Portillo: Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
5: Andrew Berg, Jan Vlcek, Luisa Charry, and Rafael Portillo: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Lessons from a Dramatic Event
6: Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, Andrew Berg, Peter Montiel, and Stephen O'Connell: Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Sub-Saharan Africa
Section II: Analytical Issues Relevant for Monetary Policy Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa
7: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Introduction to Section II
8: Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, and D. Filiz Unsal: On the Role of Money Targets in the Monetary Policy Framework in SSA: Insights from a New-Keynesian Model with Incomplete Information
9: Rafael Portillo, D. Filiz Unsal, Stephen O'Connell, and Catherine Pattillo: Implementation Errors and Incomplete Information: Implications for the Effects of Monetary Policy in Low-Income Countries
10: Rafael Portillo and Luis-Felipe Zanna: On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks
11: Rafael Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna, Stephen O'Connell, and Richard Peck: Implications of Food Subsistence for Monetary Policy and Inflation
12: Andrew Berg, Tokhir Mirzoev, Rafael Portillo, Luis-Felipe Zanna: The Short Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and International Reserve Policy
13: Jaromir Benes, Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, and David Vavra: Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework
Section III: Applied Models for Policy Analysis and Forecasting in SSA: Selected Case Studies
14: Andrew Berg and Rafael Portillo: Introduction to Section III
15: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Armando Morales, Rafael Portillo, and Jan Vlcek: On the Sources of Inflation in Kenya: A Model-Based Approach
16: Michal Andrle, Andrew Berg, Enrico Berkes, Armando Morales, Rafael Portillo, and Jan Vlcek: Do Money Targets Matter for Monetary Policy in Kenya?
17: Alfredo Baldini, Jaromir Benes, Andrew Berg, Mai C. Dao, and Rafael Portillo: Monetary Policy in Zambia in the Face of the Global Crisis: A Structural Analysis
18: Luisa Charry, Pranav Gupta, and Vimal Thakoor: Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda
19: Ali Alichi, Marshall Mills, Douglas Laxton, and Hans Weisfeld: Inflation Forecast Targeting in a Low Income Country: The Case of Ghana
20: Rafael Portillo: A Structural Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in the CEMAC Region
