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基本説明
Including whether or not to use historical data as a method of equity investing, and can the equity premium reflect changes in fundamental values and cash flows of the market.
Full Description
This book aims to create a strong understanding of the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the research and anaylsis of two scholars who are experts in this field, this volume presents the key issues that are paramount to investors, including whether or not to use historical data as a method of equity investing, and can the equity premium reflect changes in fundamental values and cash flows of the market.
Contents
CONTRIBUTORS ; . Introduction: Opening Remarks and Motivation ; The Lesons of History ; Major Concepts and Roadmap Through the Book ; I. THE LESSONS OF HISTORY ; 1. History and the Equity Risk Premium ; 3. A New Historical Database for the NYSE 1815 to 1925: Performance and Predictability ; 4. The United States Market Wealth Portfolio ; 5. World Wealth: U.S. and Foreign Market Values and Returns ; II. DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND BUILDING BLOCK FORECASTING METHODS ; 6. How to Forecast Long Run Asset Returns ; 7. The Demand for Capital Market Returns: A New Equilibrium Theory ; 8. The Supply of Capital Market Returns ; 9. Building the Future from the Past ; 10. Long Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy ; III. SIMULATING AND FORECASTING ; 11. Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: Simulations of the Future (1976-2000) ; 12. Predictions of the Past and Forecasts for the Future: 1976-2025 ; 13. Short Horizon Inputs and Long Horizon Portfolio Choice ; IV. SURVIVORSHIP AND SELECTION BIAS ; 14. Survival ; 15. Survivorship Bias in Performance Studies ; 16. Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century ; 17. Re-emerging Markets ; V. PREDICTING VARIATIONS ; 18. The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered ; 19. Patterns in Three Centuries of Stock Market Prices ; 20. Bootstrapping Tests of Long-Term Stock Market Efficiency ; 21. Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields ; 22. A Longer Look at Dividend Yields ; 23. Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40%, 90%, or 100% of Performance?
