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This is an open access title. It is available to read and download as a free PDF version on Oxford Academic and is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 International licence.
Longtermism, broadly speaking, is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is one of the key moral priorities of our time. Calls for taking a long-term view towards global problems such as climate change and poverty are familiar, typically urging us to plan on a scale of decades or perhaps a century. By contrast, longtermism asks us to take seriously the idea that what we should do right now may depend on the effects of our actions thousands, even millions, of years into the future. Essays on Longtermism brings together leading scholars to discuss four sets of overlapping questions raised by the longtermist approach. First, should we accept some version of longtermism? Second, to what extent can we predict and control the far future? Third, which ethical priorities are recommended by longtermism, and how revisionary are they? Finally, what implications would longtermism have for the design or reform of social, political, and legal institutions? Contributors, who include both supporters and critics of longtermism, are drawn from a range of disciplines including philosophy, economics, psychology, law, political science, and mathematics, and from private industry.
Contents
1: Hilary Greaves, Jacob Barrett, and David Thorstad: Introduction
Part 1. Evaluating the Case for Longtermism
2: Hilary Greaves and William MacAskill: The Case for Strong Longtermism
3: Katie Steele: Longtermism and Neutrality about More Lives
4: Johan E. Gustafsson and Petra Kosonen: Prudential Longtermism
5: Andreas L. Mogensen: Would a World Without Us Be Worse? Clues from Population Axiology
6: Christian Tarsney and Hayden Wilkinson: Longtermism in an Infinite World
7: Emma J. Curran: Longtermism and the Complaints of Future People
8: Charlotte Franziska Unruh: Against a Moral Duty to Make the Future Go Best
9: Stefan Riedener: Authenticity, Meaning, and Alienation: Reasons to Care Less about Far-Future People
Part 2. Predicting and Evaluating the Future
10: David Rhys Bernard and Eva Vivalt: What Are the Prospects of Forecasting the Far Future?
11: Rachell Powell: Taking the Long View: Paleobiological Perspectives on Longtermism
12: Philip Kitcher: Coping with Myopia
13: Toby Ord: Shaping Humanity's Longterm Trajectory
14: Aron Vallinder: Longtermism and Cultural Evolution
Part 3. Ethical Priorities
15: Olle Häggström: The Hinge of History and the Choice between Patient and Urgent Longtermism
16: Carl Shulman and Elliott Thornley: How Much Should Governments Pay to Prevent Catastrophes? Longtermism's Limited Role
17: Amanda Askell and Sven Neth: Longtermist Myopia
18: Hilary Greaves and Christian Tarsney: Minimal and Expansive Longtermism
19: Owen Cotton-Barratt and Rose Hadshar: What Would a Longtermist Society Look Like?
20: Gustav Alexandrie and Maya Eden: Is Extinction Risk Mitigation Uniquely Cost-Effective? Not in Standard Population Models
21: Michael Geruso and Dean Spears: Depopulation and Longtermism
22: Joe Carlsmith: Existential Risk from Power-Seeking AI
23: Richard Ngo and Adam Bales: Deceit and Power: Machine Learning and Misalignment
24: Kevin Kuruc and David Manley: The Ethics, Economics, and Demographics of Delaying Aging
25: Heather Browning and Walter Veit: Longtermism and Animals
Part 4. Institutions and Society
26: Andreas T. Schmidt and Jacob Barrett: Longtermist Political Philosophy: An Agenda for Future Research
27: Tyler M. John: Retrospective Accountability: A Mechanism for Representing Future Generations
28: H. Orri Stefánsson: Longtermism and Social Risk-Taking
29: Ilan Noy and Shakked Noy: The Short-Termism of 'Hard' Economics
30: Eric Martínez and Christoph Winter: The Intuitive Appeal of Legal Protection for Future Generations
31: Stefan Schubert, Lucius Caviola, Julian Savulescu, and Nadira S. Faber: Temporal Distance Reduces Ingroup Favoritism
