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ANTICIPATE AND SHAPE TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION...INSTEAD OF BEING Gain powerful insights for crafting strategy in technology-rich industries, from IT to finance, and healthcare to energy Understand the massive social impacts of technology, and how today's societal divisions shape your opportunities to innovate For everyone who must manage new technologies and respond to technological disruptionFrom biotech to nanotech to big data, the pace of technological disruption continues to accelerate. Now, leading business strategy expert Alfred Marcus offers powerful tools for anticipating technological change, and managing the threats and opportunities it poses.Through insightful case studies, Marcus offers strategic advice for overcoming the pitfalls associated with deploying emerging technologies, or responding to others who use them to compete with you.Marcus illuminates the ongoing interplay between technological change and wider societal trends, helping you recognize new opportunities created by these interactions, and maximize the upside-both for your company and the broader society.Whether you're an executive or strategist, technical professional or MBA student, this guide will sharpen your focus on the future so you can navigate radical technological-driven change-wherever it leads.Emerging technologies offer immense promise for generating growth, profitability, and prosperity. But they face major obstacles to commercialization, and have environmental and social costs that must be carefully managed to maximize the benefit and mitigate the harm.This book is about the foresight and strategic actions required for these new technologies to play a positive rather than negative role. Alfred Marcus illuminates their potential, reviews the risky decisions needed to transform potential into reality, and discusses how technologies might be used to ameliorate social problems rather than exacerbate them.Marcus begins with insights about the strategy of technological innovation, using case studies to show why these innovations can fail, and offering methods for dealing with uncertain outcomes. Next, using examples such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, he illustrates how to better manage the dangers associated with technologies. He then turns to technology's impact on three key societal conflicts: that between young and old, rich and poor, and the potential for scarcity and abundance in energy production. Finally, he focuses on how several pairs of companies, including Intel and AMD, Dell and Acer, and Amazon and Barnes & Noble, have managed technological disruption in their industries, and the difficult challenges they now face in overcoming these challenges.Whether you're an executive, manager, or student, you'll gain powerful insights into innovation, strategy, execution, technology management, and the fastchanging business environment in which technological change takes place.Exploring the horizon in information technology, medicine, genetics, energy, and materialsPRACTICAL BUSINESS LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGICAL FAILURESManaging the uncertainties and dangers of technological investment and deploymentSITUATING NEW TECHNOLOGY IN A COMPLEX WORLDHow the social environment shapes technological impacts and opportunitiesCOPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION: OPEN-ENDED CASE STUDIESHow enterprises have responded to technological change, and what they might do next
Contents
Introduction 1The Next Set of Breakthroughs 2The Information Revolution 2Medical Technologies 2Genetics 2Alternative Energy 3Artificial Intelligence 3Material Sciences and Nanotechnology 3What This Book Is About 3Part I: Technology and Strategy 4Part II: Managing Danger 5Part III: The Environment of Technology 5Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions 6Endnotes 8PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY 9Chapter 1: Technological Disruptions 11The Powers of the Mind 11Information Technology (IT) 12Medical Technologies 13Genetics 15Alternative Energy 16Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and Nanotechnology 16The Challenge of Commercialization 18Endnotes 18Chapter 2: Commercialization's Obstacles 19Fumbling the Future at Xerox: IT 19Medical Technology: Cochlear Implants 20Basic Research in Diverse Labs 21Breakthroughs in Other Disciplines 21A Highly Committed Champion 22Multiple Developmental Paths 22Private Firms' Failure to Cooperate 22Professional Endorsement 22FDA Approval 23Lack of Enthusiasm from the User Community 23High Costs 23Safety and Efficacy Concerns 23Auxiliary Services 24Withdrawal 24New Entrants 24Genetics: Agricultural Productivity 24Sustainability as a Corporate Goal 25Opposition 25Rapid U.S. Market Penetration 25More Promised Progress 26Government Restrictions 26Environmentalists' Criticism 26Competition from DuPont 27Alternative Energy: The Electric Car 27Less Pollution and Foreign Oil 28Range and Fossil Fuels 281990s' Failure 29Hybrid Successes 29Weak Plug-In Sales 29Battery Subsidies from the U.S. Government 29A Solution from Tesla and Panasonic 30Not Yet Affordable 30A New Business Model 31The Slow and Arduous Path to Commercialization 31Why Xerox Missed Its Opportunity: Game Theory 32Setbacks at Many Points 33Uncertain Government Support 34Project Management Insufficient to Overcome These Problems 35The Inclination to Undertake Safe Projects 36Technologies Push and Markets Pull 36Determination, Will, and Persistence 37Endnotes 37Chapter 3: Hedging the Uncertainty 39Trends 40Expert Opinion 40Historical Analogies 41Industry Analysis 42Scenarios 42Surprises 43Taking Notice of the Periphery 43Romances, Tragedies, and Comedies 44The Narrative Details 44Applying Scenario Logic to Technology Commercialization 45Strategic Adjustments 46Hedging 47Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome 47Take the Robust Route 48Delay Until Further Clarity Emerges 49Commit with Fallbacks 49Shape the Future 50Conclusion 50Endnotes 50PART II: MANAGING DANGER 53Chapter 4: Dealing with Danger 55Bhopal: What Went Wrong 55Highly Toxic Chemicals 55Weak Infrastructure 56An Uncontrolled Explosion 56Nonfunctioning Backups 57Trapped Victims 57Organizational Shortcomings 57Warnings Ignored 58The Price of the Accident 58The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: What Went Wrong 59Beyond Petroleum 59Tar Sands Processing 59Explosion in Texas City and Oil Leaks in Alaska 59The Spill 60The Many Mistakes 60Inherently Dangerous Technologies 61Dilemmas in Managing Dangerous Technologies 63Individual Cognitive Limits 64Experts' Cognitive Limits 64Organizations' Cognitive Limits 64How Much a Life Is Worth 65Inferences from Animal Studies to Humans 65Conclusion 66Endnotes 66Chapter 5: Laws of Liability 69Vioxx: What Went Wrong? 69Merck's Positive Reputation 70The Search for a Blockbuster Drug Without Gastrointestinal Complications 70Early Warnings 70Failure to Communicate 71The FDA's Required Warning 71More Criticism 72Voluntary Recall 72Thousands of Suits 72Criminal Charges 73Johnson & Johnson's Hip Replacement: What Went Wrong? 73A Paragon of Social Responsibility 74The Acquisition of DePuy 74All-Metal Replacements 74Design Problems 75FDA Investigations 75A Voluntary Recall 75Suits Against the Company 76The Reimbursement Plan 76The Laws of Liability 77Evolution of the Law 77Classic Tort Law 78Assumption of Risk 78Punitive Action 78Strict Liability 79The Justification for Strict Liability 79Further Movement from a Fault-Based System 80Refinements of the Laws of Liability 81Conclusion 81Endnotes 82Chapter 6: Old, Young, and Global Security 87The Rise of the Elderly 87Declining Fertility 88Economic Impacts 90Technology to Assist the Elderly 91A Cure for Alzheimer's 91Reversing Aging 93Among the Young: Hope and Disillusion 96Meaningful Work 97What Next 100Diminishing Youth Bulges 102Technology to Combat Terror 106Conclusion 108Endnotes 108Chapter 7: Rich, Poor, and Global Inequality 111Trends 111Within Country Gaps 112Between-Country Gaps 112The U.S. Wealth Gap 113The Rise of Neoliberalism 115Technology at the Top of the Pyramid 117Sophisticated Models 117What Hedge Funds Do 118Only for the Already Wealthy 119Renaissance Technologies 120Technology at the Bottom of the Pyramid 121Telecommunications 122Potable Water 123Health Services 124Nutrition and Crop Protection 124Energy 125Critiques 125Conclusion 126Endnotes 127Chapter 8: Abundance, Scarcity, and Global Sustainability 129Fossil Fuels 130Oil Price Declines 130Hydraulic Fracking 132Tar Sands 133Offshore Recovery 134Cleaner Energy 135Building Energy 136Industrial and Commercial 138Solar 138Wind 140Energy Storage 142Biofuels 143Conclusion 145Endnotes 145PART IV: COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS 147Chapter 9: Missing the Boat on Mobile Technology: Intel and AMD 149The Mobile Revolution 149The Battles Between Intel and AMD 152Memory 152Microprocessors 153The Sub-Zero Segment 153Speed and Continued Price Wars 154Branching Out 155The Hammer 156Global Antitrust 157Graphics and Other Products 157Divesting Manufacturing 158Searching for New Markets 158ARM Architecture 159Mobile 159Gaming 159Mounting Mobile Losses 160New Leadership at AMD 160Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) 162The Internet of Things (IOT) 162Smart Glasses and Augmented Reality 163Risks Ahead 164Conclusion 164Glossary of Computer Terminology 165Endnotes 165Chapter 10: From Mass Customizing to Mass Commodity: Dell and Acer 167Financial Woes 168An Industry in Decline 170The Fat Years: Dell's Ascent 170A Competency in Mass Customization 171Gateway Abandons the Direct Model 173The Lean Years: Michael Dell's Resignation 174Acer's Acquisition of Gateway 176Dell's Plans for a Recovery 177The Enterprise Market 181Becoming a Private Company 182Acer's Efforts at Revitalization 183Notebooks 183Smartphones 183Free Cloud 185IOT 185Conclusion 185Endnotes 186Chapter 11: Finding Growth and Profitability in Bookselling: Barnes & Noble and Amazon 189Barnes & Noble and the Superstore 189Amazon and Internet Commerce 191Amazon's Reinvention 192Barnes & Noble's Focus on Books 194Sinking Profits 195Amazon's Fluid Identity 195Profiting from the Cloud 197Barnes & Noble's Decision to Split Up 198Spinning Off the Nook 198Spinning Off the College Division 199How Attractive Was Bookselling? 200Sales Trends 200Reading Habits 201Leisure Time Choices 201Digital Devices 202The Publishers 202Wholesale 203The Big Five 203The Spat with Amazon 204Conclusion 205Endnotes 205Chapter 12: Escaping the Middle: Best Buy and Charles Schwab 209The Evolution of Best Buy 210Concept One: 1983-1989 211Concept Two: 1990-2001 211Concept Three: 2002-2007 212The Aftermath of the Financial Meltdown 214The Evolution of Charles Schwab 214Discounting 214High Net Worth Clients 215A Category of One 215The Affluent of the Future 216Following Customers 216New Challenges 217Competition in Consumer Electronics 217Online 217Showrooming 218Competition Among Discount Brokers 218Innovation Dilemmas 219Major Industry Players 219Best Buy's Comeback Plans 220Transforming E-Commerce 220Cost Savings and Product Innovation 221Enhancing the Internet Platform: Charles Schwab 222Ranking the Platforms 223The Robo-Advisor 223Conclusion 224Endnotes 225Chapter 13: Content for a New Age: Disney and Time Warner 229Vertical Integration: Disney 230Vertical Integration: Time Warner 231Mergers, Acquisitions, and Divestitures 232The Disney-Capital Cities Merger 235ABC 236The Iger Era 237The AOL-Time Warner Merger 237Trying to Revive AOL 238Slimming Down 239HBO's Edginess and Success 240Disney's Dominance 241Cable Channels 241The Studios 242Internet Initiatives and Cable's Abandonment 243Losing Young People 244Conclusion 245Endnotes 246Final Thoughts 249The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment:Lessons on Innovation, Disruption, and Strategy Execution 249Index 251
