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Nearly everything you know about China is wrong! Yes, within a decade, China will have the world's largest economy. But that is the least important thing to know about China. In this enlightening book, two of the world's leading China experts turn the conventional wisdom on its head, showing why China's economic growth will constrain rather than empower it. Pioneering political analyst Damien Ma and global economist Bill Adams reveal why, having 35 years of ferocious economic growth, China's future will be shaped by the same fundamental reality that has shaped it for millennia: scarcity. Ma and Adams drill deep into Chinese society, illuminating all the scarcities that will limit its power and progress. Beyond scarcities of natural resources and public goods, they illuminate China's persistent poverties of individual freedoms, cultural appeal, and ideological legitimacy - and the corrosive loss of values and beliefs amongst a growing middle class shackled by a parochial and inflexible political system. Everyone knows "the 21st century is China's to lose" - but, as with so many things that "everyone knows," that's just wrong. Ma and Adams get beyond cheerleading and fearmongering to tell the complex truth about China today. This is a truth you need to hear - whether you're an investor, business decision-maker, policymaker, or citizen.
Contents
Introduction 1Economic scarcity 61. Resources: While supplies last 62. Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 63. Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 7Social scarcity 74. Welfare: Socialism with Chinese .actually no, not socialism at all 75. Education: Give me equality but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua 76. Housing: Home is where the wallet is 8Political scarcity 87. Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit 88. Values: What would Confucius do? 99. Freedom: Keep on rockin' in the firewalled world 9Part I Economic Scarcity 13Chapter 1 Resources: While supplies last 15The Panda Boom 19It's the CPI, stupid 20Smashing the iron rice bowl 22Under the mattress: Savings gluttony 24The world ain't so flat, or, good neighbors near and far 26Bamboo consumption continued 28Land: So much yet so little 29Ownership society with Chinese characteristics 30Legacy problems 32Energy: From industry to transport and residential 34Import dependence as Achilles' heel 39Water 41Thirsty industry 42H2O politics 46Chapter 2 Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 49Feeding one-fifth of humanity 53A diet for a land of plenty 56The meat of the problem 56Hot and bothered .and thirsty 61Rise of the machines? 63From Happy Meals to deadly dinners 66Astronauts get Tang, taikonauts get grass-fed beef 69Chapter 3 Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 75Socialist employers' paradise 77...Becomes socialist employers' paradise, lost 80Migrants came, saw, and some are saying see ya later 81Westward they go 84Workers with attitude 87Warmer, cuddlier policy for migrants 88School of hard knocks 90What happens when your key economic input shrinks? 91Cashing out on the demographic dividend: an "uh oh" moment? 93Public policy: A dash of creativity and wisdom needed 94When 150 million workers unite 97Part II Social Scarcity 99Chapter 4 Welfare: Socialism with Chinese actually no, not socialism at all 101Dismantling the welfare system 104...And stitching it back together 112From youth bulge to geriatric bulge 117Mo' bling, mo' honeys 125Serving the people 128Chapter 5 Education: Give me equality but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua 131A thought experiment: Turkmenbashi for a day 131No, seriously, there is a real thing called urban bias 132The social equalizer that isn't 135From urban bias to urban household bias 142Turn on, tune in, and study abroad: Life at the top 144Running out of levers to pull 147Chapter 6 Housing: Home is where the wallet is 151Phat cribs and fatter wallets 153An urban middle class is born 156Jobs all around 157Fat pancakes from the sky: the rich man's boom 159So happy together 160When virtues become flaws 161"I love you .after you've closed on that two-bedroom" 162On the outside looking in 165Socialist property rights with Chinese characteristics 167Revenge of the capitalists 169No taxation without representation .but with corruption 170Squeezed 173Part III Political Scarcity .177Chapter 7 Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit 179A young nation-state 182E pluribus mishmash 185What comes after a revolution? 189Forging the Deng Xiaoping consensus 190New slogans, same consensus 193The second identity crisis 195Nationalism to the rescue (sort of) 198Virtue is as virtuous does 200Confucius as cultural export 204Searching for a distinctly Chinese paradigm? 205Chapter 8 Values: What would Confucius do? 209Qunar (or where to)? 212Software upgrades 213Pursuit of happiness 215Separate but unequal 219Governing post-materialist China: The "what have you done for me lately" problem 223It's (mostly) sunny in Canton 224Swatting flies 225China pushes back on values 227China the exceptional? 232Chapter 9 Freedom: Keep on rockin' in the firewalled world 237A decade of harmony? 242Stability Inc. 244The "average Zhou" pushes back 249From 100 flowers to 100 million weibos 254Fast and furious .and deadly 255Give me PM 2.5 or give me death 260Coloring outside the lines 264Conclusion 267All your (economic) base are belong to us 267Embracing change: the basecase 270Growth without abundance 271A "New Deal" with Chinese characteristics 274Chinese governance 4.0 277Baby steps 279What if the Chinese dream is deferred? 283Endnotes 287Index 319
