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"The author introduces an investing methodology with proven results and easily applied unequivocal decision making. Particularly impressive is the way he includes a selling discipline, not just a buying discipline. This book is a must for any concerned investor." Richard Arms, Analyst, Author, and Inventor of The Arms Index "This is one of the best new investing books of the decade: succinct, practical, and timeless. Built on a foundation of 40 years of market wisdom, it combines technical analysis and portfolio construction that is supported by excellent research. It should be required reading for everyone from new investors to the most sophisticated hedge fund managers." Linda Raschke, President, LBRGroup, Inc. "The author is an award winning Technical Analyst. In this book, he covers the basic principles, definitions, safeguards, pitfalls, and risks of investing. Believing in active management, he recognizes the benefits of multiple tools (fundamental and technical) and disciplines there-on, to construct a portfolio methodology with guidelines for both buying and selling, for maximum gain. This is a valuable book for any serious investor."Louise Yamada, Managing Director, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC. "In this book, Charles Kirkpatrick demonstrates just how powerful a tool relative strength is, deftly combining technical and fundamental analysis to produce a superior long-term approach. This isn't just theory, but the real-time work of a practitioner with an outstanding track record. For many years a small group of knowledgeable investors has known about this work, now you can too." John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, President, Bollinger Capital Management "The author presents a clearly written, time-tested formula for investor independence and success through applying relative price strength for stock selection and portfolio construction." Hank Pruden, Golden Gate University Over the past 25 years, Charles D. Kirkpatrick's exclusive stock-picking technique has outperformed the S&P 500's performance by a whopping 7.7 times. That's right: If you'd invested $10,000 in the S&P 500, you'd have $130,000 now...but if you'd followed Kirkpatrick's published picks, you'd have $1,000,000! If that's not amazing enough, Kirkpatrick's system is remarkably easy to use.In this book, he teaches you all you need to put it to work in your portfolio! Kirkpatrick reveals why an active strategy based on relative stock rankings is the surest route to profit, and how just a few pieces of publicly available information enable you to create rankings that virtually guarantee exceptional performance. You'll learn how to use his techniques to organize stocks into a portfolio that maximizes returns while reducing risk...uncover trigger points that tell you when to buy and sell...and systematically protect yourself against bad stocks and bad markets. * Why the conventional wisdom about investing is flat-out wrong What's wrong with diversification, "random walks," and the efficient markets hypothesis * Don't even try to predict the markets: you don't have to!Discover what the markets are actually doing: then react fast, with discipline * Invest the intelligent way: with "relatives" Measure what really matters: a stock's relative strength and growth compared with the rest * Start using the market's reliable investment triggers Recognize what to buy, what to sell, and when to make your moves * Mitigate the risks associated with broad market declines Intelligently decide when to move assets into cash
Contents
Introduction 1 CHAPTER 1 Investing Today 3 Investment Management 4 Investment Management Incentive 5 What Do You Do? 15 Summary 18 CHAPTER 2 Beliefs and Biases 19 The Markets 20 My Emotional Experience 22 Summary 25 CHAPTER 3 Investment Risk 27 Individual Stock Risk 27 Randomness 29 Diversification 30 Law of Percentages 31 Drawdown 31 Market Risk 33 Summary 37 CHAPTER 4 Conventional Analysis 39 Fundamental Versus Technical Methods 39 Summary 46 CHAPTER 5 Prediction Versus Reaction 47 Economists 47 Gurus and "Experts" 49 Mutual Funds 50 Security Analysts 50 Reaction Technique 53 Summary 55 CHAPTER 6 Meeting the Relatives 57 Value 58 Growth 61 Price Strength 63 The Evidence 67 Summary 68 CHAPTER 7 Value Selection 69 Performance Three Months Ahead 73 Performance Six Months Ahead 74 Performance Twelve Months Ahead 77 Advancing and Declining Background Market 78 Relative Price-to-Sales Percentile During a Declining Market After Three Months 81 Summary 83 CHAPTER 8 Relative Reported EarningsGrowth Selection 85 Summary 93 CHAPTER 9 Relative Price Strength Selection 95 Relative Strength Calculations 95 Summary 105 CHAPTER 10 Putting It Together 109 Growth Model 109 Value Model 113 Summary of Growth and Value List Triggers 116 New Model (Called the "Bargain List") 118 Summary 122 CHAPTER 11 Selecting and Deleting Stocks 125 Buying 125 Selling 127 Sources of Relative Information 130 Other Concerns 131 How to Act 132 Summary 135 CHAPTER 12 Creating a Portfolio of Stocks 137 Maximum Drawdown 138 Simple but Practical Methods of Creating a Portfolio 138 Summary 146 Conclusion 147 APPENDIX Investment Procedure Example 149 Finding Data, Calculating Data, and Locating Sources 149 The Hypothetical Value Model Portfolio 150 Performance of Value Model 152 Adding and Deleting Stocks 154 References 157 Index 159
