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Full Description
"A helpful read not just for corporate strategists but for almost anyone looking ahead."
Los Angeles Times
What's Your Next Big Move?At the turn of the century, Western Union passed on the chance to dominate the telephone industry. Later, General Electric concluded that a new invention called television was doomed to fail. And very recently, decision makers at the highest level were taken off-guard when the global economy dropped from under their feet--and took their companies with it.
Today, only those business leaders with the power of long-term foresight will seize and hold true competitive advantage. But can managers really predict the future? Yes, to a greater extent than one might expect. Strategic Business Forecasting shows how to identify and quantify possible events that may affect your business. Applying creativity, personal experience, and the lessons of history, you can use such forecasting to develop plans that will help your organization compete.
Drs. Simon Ramo and Ronald Sugar, two giants of the aerospace industry, share their Four-Measures Rating system to help you explore the world of possibilities--thoroughly and systematically. Under their tutelage, you will be equipped to:
Create a comprehensive list of possible scenarios concerning your business Utilize a scoring system to rate each scenario's merit as a serious and useful prediction Develop an effective plan that strategically shapes the future of your organization
The authors provide vivid illustrations of the Four-Measures system at work with real-world examples of both forecasting failures and successes.
No one can predict perfectly, and the authors don't promise magic. With the approach described in Strategic Business Forecasting, however, you can ensure your organization is better poised to seize future opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and handle anything the increasingly volatile global economy throws your way.
Contents
Introduction
PART ONE: Forecasting Principles
1. Poor Past Predicting
2. Near Term Forecasting
3. From Possibilities to Predictions
4. Extrapolating from Past to Future
5.Possibility Generators
6.Big Externalities Predicting
PART TWO: Future Possibilities
7. How Will Automakers approach the Future of the Automobile
8. Predicting the Likelihood of Terrorism in the United States
9. China and the Asian Military Arena - Will There be War?
10. How to Improve K-12 Education in the U.S.
11. A Nuclear Scenario
12. Developing Robotic Birds and No-Casualty Warfare
13. Predicting the Price and Supply of Oil
14. A Super Grid Electric System - Is It Possible
15. The Medical Practice Internet Channel
16. Will the U.S. Participate in the Next Major War?
