Updated and reflects new developments such as 'fast and frugal heuristics' and "structured risk management".
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis plays a key role in helping managers gain a greater understanding of the situations they face. This updated classic offers unrivalled coverage of the problems associated with unaided managerial decision making and the methods designed to overcome them, all presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner. The Third Edition is extensively updated and reflects new developments such as 'fast and frugal heuristics' and "structured risk management". A new website will offer links, additional exercises and case studies, and downloadable Excel spreadsheets.
Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips.Preface.Chapter 1: Introduction.Chapter 2: How people make decisions involving multiple objectives.Chapter 3: Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART.Chapter 4: Introduction to probability.Chapter 5: Decision making under uncertainty.Chapter 6: Decision trees and influence diagrams.Chapter 7: Applying simulation to decision problems.Chapter 8: Revising judgments in the light of new information.Chapter 9: Biases in probability assessment.Chapter 10: Methods for eliciting probabilities.Chapter 11: Risk and uncertainty management.Chapter 12: Decisions involving groups of individuals.Chapter 13: Resource allocation and negotiation problems.Chapter 14: Decision framing and cognitive inertia.Chapter 15: Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty.Chapter 16: The analytic hierarchy process.Chapter 17: Alternative decision-support systems.Suggested answers to selected questions.Index.