Description
“Jenkins’ rare combination of psychological theorizing and archival research in several countries and time periods yields a fascinating new take on the central question of when states over-estimate or under-estimate others’ resolve. The biases that leaders and elites fall prey to appear to vary with their emotional states and senses of well-being, factors that most scholars have ignored.”
—Robert Jervis, author of How Statesmen Think
Table of Contents
1. Introduction.- 2. Explanatory Style Explained.- 3. Theories of Reputation for Resolve - from Thucydides to Prospect Theory.- 4. Text Mining the British Hansard.- 5. Text Mining the U.S. Congressional Record.- 6. The Four Crises Leading to the First World War.- 7. The Appeasement of Nazi Germany.- 8. The Crimean War versus the Suez Crisis.- 9. The Falkland Islands War versus the Spanish-American War.- 10. Pearl Harbor.- 11. The Korean War versus the Gulf War.- 12. The Vietnam War versus the Iraq War.- 13. The Yom Kippur War and the Soviet-Afghan War.- 14. Donald Trump and the Future of American Foreign Policy: Syria, Iran and North Korea.- 15. The Leader and the Emotional Climate.- 16. Conclusion.
