Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life

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  • 製本 Hardcover:ハードカバー版/ページ数 203 p.
  • 言語 ENG,ENG
  • 商品コード 9781587990717
  • DDC分類 123.3

Table of Contents

Preface and Acknowledgments                        xiii
Chapter Summaries xvii
Prologue 1 (1)
Mosques in the Clouds 1 (6)
PART I: Solons Warning - Skewness, Asymmetry, 7 (104)
Induction
If You're So Rich Why Aren't You So Smart? 11 (15)
Nero Tulip 11 (6)
Hit by Lightining 11 (1)
Temporary Sanity 12 (2)
Modus Operandi 14 (2)
No Work Ethics 16 (1)
There Are Always Secrets 17 (1)
John the High-Yield Trader 17 (4)
An Overpaid Hick 19 (2)
The Red-Hot Summer 21 (3)
Serotonin and Randomness 22 (2)
Your Dentist Is Rich, Very Rich 24 (2)
A Bizarre Accounting Method 26 (14)
Alternative History 26 (3)
Russian Roulette 27 (1)
An Even More Vicious Roulette 28 (1)
Smooth Peer Relations 29 (5)
Salvation Via Aeroflot 30 (2)
Solon Visits Regine's Night Club 32 (2)
George Will Is No Solon: On 34 (6)
Counterintuitive Truths
Humiliated in Debates 37 (1)
Risk Managers 38 (2)
A Mathematical Meditation on History 40 (20)
Europlayboy Mathematics 40 (1)
The Tools 41 (2)
Monte Carlo Mathematics 43 (2)
Fun in My Attic 45 (6)
Making History 45 (1)
Zorglubs Crowding the Attic 46 (1)
Denigration of History 47 (1)
The Stove Is Hot 48 (2)
My Solon 50 (1)
Distilled Thinking on Your PalmPilot 51 (5)
Breaking News 51 (2)
Shiller Redux 53 (2)
Gerontocracy 55 (1)
Philostratus in Monte Carlo: On the 56 (4)
Difference Between Noise and Information
Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific 60 (8)
Intellectual
Randomness and the Verb 60 (4)
Reverse Turing Test 62 (2)
The Father of All Pseudothinkers 64 (1)
Monte Carlo Poetry 64 (4)
Survival of the Least Fit - Can Evolution Be 68 (16)
Fooled by Randomness?
Carlos the Emerging Markets Wizard 68 (6)
The Good Years 71 (1)
Averaging Down 72 (1)
Lines in the Sand 72 (2)
John the High-Yield Trader 74 (4)
The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations 75 (3)
The Traits They Shared 78 (1)
A Review of Market Fools of Randomness 78 (3)
Constants
Naive Evolutionary Theories 81 (3)
Can Evolution be Fooled by Randomness? 82 (2)
Skewness and Asymmetry 84 (15)
The Median Is Not the Message 84 (2)
Bull and Bear Zoology 86 (7)
An Arrogant 29-Year-Old Son 88 (1)
Rare Events 89 (1)
Symmetry and Science 90 (3)
The Rare Event Fallacy 93 (6)
The Mother of All Deceptions 93 (3)
Why Don't Statisticians Detect Rare 96 (1)
Events?
A Mischievous Child Replaces the Black 97 (2)
Balls
The Problem of Induction 99 (12)
From Bacon to Hume 99 (4)
Cygnus Atratus 100 (1)
Niederhoffer, Victorian Gentleman 100 (3)
Sir Karl's Promoting Agent 103 (7)
Location, Location 105 (1)
Popper's Answer 106 (2)
Open Society 108 (1)
Nobody Is Perfect 108 (1)
Pascal's Wager 109 (1)
Thank You Solon 110 (1)
PART II: Monkeys on Typewriters - Survivorship 111 (58)
and Other Biases
It Depends On the Number of Monkeys 114 (1)
Vicious Real Life 115 (1)
This Section 115 (2)
Too Many Millionaires Next Door 117 (8)
How To Stop the Sting of Failure 117 (3)
Somewhat Happy 117 (1)
Too Much Work 118 (1)
You're a Failure 119 (1)
Double Survivorship Biases 120 (3)
More Experts 120 (2)
Visibility Winners 122 (1)
It's a Bull Market 122 (1)
A Guru's Opinion 123 (2)
It Is Easier To Buy and Sell Than Fry an Egg 125 (17)
Fooled by Numbers 127 (4)
Placebo Investors 127 (1)
Nobody Has To Be Competent 128 (1)
Ergodicity 129 (2)
Life Is Coincidental 131 (10)
The Mysterious Letter 131 (1)
An Interrupted Tennis Game 132 (1)
The Birthday Paradox 132 (1)
It's a Small World! 132 (1)
Data Mining, Statistics, and Charlatanism 133 (1)
The Best Book I Have Ever Read! 134 (1)
The Backtester 134 (2)
A More Unsettling Extension 136 (1)
The Earnings Season: Fooled by the Results 136 (1)
Cancer Cures 137 (2)
Professor Pearson Goes to Monte Carlo 139 (1)
(Literally): Randomness Does Not Look
Random!
The Dog That Did Not Bark: On Biases in 140 (1)
Scientific Knowledge
I Have No Conclusion 141 (1)
Loser Takes All - On the Nonlinearities of 142 (7)
Life
The Sandpile Effect 142 (4)
Enter Randomness 144 (1)
Learning to Type 144 (2)
Mathematics Inside and Outside the Real 146 (2)
World
Buridan's Donkey or the Good Side of 147 (1)
Randomness
When It Rains, It Pours 148 (1)
Randomness and Our Brain: We Are Probability 149 (20)
Blind
Paris or the Bahamas? 149 (1)
Some Architectural Considerations 150 (2)
From Psychology to Neurobiology 152 (10)
Our Natural Habitat 153 (1)
Kafka in a Courtroom 154 (2)
An Absurd World 156 (1)
Kahneman and Tversky 157 (1)
Neurobiology 158 (1)
Examples of Biases in Understanding 159 (1)
Probability
We Are Option Blind 160 (2)
Probabilities and the Media (More 162 (7)
Journalists)
CNBC at Lunch Time 163 (1)
You Should Be Dead by Now 163 (1)
The Bloomberg Explanations 164 (2)
Filtering Methods 166 (2)
We Do Not Understand Confidence Levels 168 (1)
An Admission 168 (1)
Part III: Wax in My Ears - Living with 169 (27)
Randomitis
I Am Not So Intelligent 172 (1)
The Odyssean Mute Command 173 (2)
Gamblers' Ticks and Pigeons in a Box 175 (7)
Taxi-Cab English and Causality 175 (3)
The Skinner Pigeon Experiment 178 (1)
Philostratus Redux 179 (3)
Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability and 182 (9)
Skepticism
Carneades Comes to Rome 183 (2)
Probability the Child of Skepticism 184 (1)
Monsieur de Norpois's Opinions 185 (3)
Path Dependence of Beliefs 187 (1)
Computing Instead of Thinking 188 (2)
From Funeral to Funeral 190 (1)
Bacchus Abandons Antony 191 (5)
Notes on Jackie O.'s Funeral 192 (2)
Randomness and Personal Elegance 194 (2)
Epilogue: Solon Told You So 196 (1)
Beware the London Traffic Jams 196 (1)
Notes 197 (1)
Index 198 (6)
About Texere 204