Statistical Aspects of Bse and Vcjd : Models for Epidemics (Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability)

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Statistical Aspects of Bse and Vcjd : Models for Epidemics (Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability)

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  • 製本 Hardcover:ハードカバー版／ページ数 229 p.
  • 言語 ENG
  • 商品コード 9780849303869
  • DDC分類 614.598015195

基本説明

Presents the general methodology required for through analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology, using BSE in British cattle as the primary example system.

Full Description


Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or "mad cow disease," first diagnosed in late 1986, is transmitted through feed, indirect horizontal transmission, apparently maternally and possibly horizontally, through cattle-to-cattle contact or a contaminated environment. With no ante-mortem test yet developed, the only information available about BSE is from case surveillance and a limited number of experiments. Only through careful and rigorous modeling and analysis can reliable estimates of past infection and predictions of future cases be made. The modeling developed for BSE utilizes a range of techniques from statistics, ecology, and demography that is of interest both as a case study and for providing tools for other modeling projects. Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics presents the general methodology required for thorough analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology. BSE in British cattle is the primary example system presented, but application to other diseases, particularly the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (e.g., Scrapie in sheep and nvCJD in humans) are also highlighted. The book concentrates on presenting an exposition of the "state-of-the-art" rather than introductory material on the mathematical/statistical modeling of infectious diseases.

Contents

INTRODUCTIONBackground and AimsOverview of the BookBSE AND vCJDTransmissible Spongiform EncephalopathiesTransmission Routes Incubation Period DistributionsThe Genetics of TSEsThe Nature of the Aetiological Agent of BSEConclusionIntroductionBSE Case DatabasesDemography of British CattleThe Maternal Cohort StudyData on Confirmed vCJD CasesPOPULATION MODELS: FORMULATIONIntroductionThe Simple Epidemic ProcessIntroducing DemographyAge-Dependent Susceptibility/ExposureThe Inclusion of Different Transmission RoutesR0 for Systems with Multiple Transmission RoutesSolving the ModelHeterogeneity in SusceptibilityIncidence of DiseaseMaximum Likelihood Methods for Back-CalculationModel Goodness-of-FitConfidence and Prediction IntervalsPOPULATION MODELS: RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSESIntroductionDistributional FormsModel ResultsCross-Validation of Disease ParametersPredictionsMaternal TransmissionHorizontal TransmissionUnder-ReportingConclusionsINDIVIDUAL SURVIVAL MODELSIntroductionMaternal Risk Enhancement ModelsAnalysis of the Maternal Cohort StudyDam-Calf Pairs from the GB Case DatabaseConclusionsMATERNAL RISK ENHANCEMENT MODELS: RESULTSIntroductionMaternal Cohort StudyThe Dam-Calf Pair Data in the GB Case DatabaseSuckler Calf DataConclusionsSPATIO-TEMPORAL CORRELATION AND DISEASE CLUSTERINGIntroductionSpatial Structure of the BSE EpidemicClustering of Cases in HoldingAt Risk Holdings ModelProbabilistic Clustering ModelsCulling Policy DesignConclusionsMetapopulation ModelsIntroductionHolding-Level Survival ModelsStochastic Simulation Models of the BSE EpidemicConclusionsPREDICTIONS AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR vCJDIntroductionSurvival ModelEstimation/Scenario AnalysisDeterminants of Epidemic SizeMinimum Incubation PeriodEpidemic PredictabilityApplication to UAT Programme DesignConclusionsFUTURE DIRECTIONSUpdated Back-Calculation Analysis of BSE in GBvCJD Epidemic PredictionScrapie EpidemiologyConclusionREFERENCES