Making Decisions (2 Revised)


Making Decisions (2 Revised)

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  • 製本 Paperback:紙装版/ペーパーバック版
  • 言語 ENG
  • 商品コード 9780471908081
  • DDC分類 519.542

Full Description

Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand.Contents Decisions and uncertain events A numerical measure for uncertainty The laws of probability A numerical measure for consequences The utility of money Bayes' Theorem Value of information Decision trees The assessment of probabilities and utilities An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

Table of Contents

  Decisions and uncertain events                   1  (13)
A numerical measure for uncertainty 13 (17)
The laws of probability 30 (23)
A numerical measure for consequences 53 (18)
The utility of money 71 (26)
Bayes' Theorem 97 (20)
Value of information 117(22)
Decision trees 139(21)
The assessment of probabilities and utilities 160(19)
An appreciation 179(16)
Appendix 195(5)
Answers to exercises 200(3)
Glossary of Symbols 203(2)
Subject Index 205