ハリウッドの経済学:映画産業の混沌<br>Hollywood Economics : How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry (Contemporary Politicaleconomy)

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ハリウッドの経済学:映画産業の混沌
Hollywood Economics : How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry (Contemporary Politicaleconomy)

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  • Routledge(2003/11発売)
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  • 製本 Hardcover:ハードカバー版/ページ数 448 p.
  • 言語 ENG
  • 商品コード 9780415312608
  • DDC分類 384.830973

Table of Contents

List of figures                                    xi
List of tables xiii
Acknowledgments xvi
Prologue 1 (6)
PART I Box-office champions, chaotic dynamics 7 (58)
and herding
1 The market for motion pictures: rank, 11 (17)
revenue and survival
1.1 Introduction 11 (1)
1.2 The motion picture exhibition market 12 (2)
1.3 Evolutionary survival tournaments 14 (1)
1.4 The Variety data 15 (3)
1.5 The survival model 18 (1)
1.6 Empirical results 19 (7)
1.7 Conclusions 26 (2)
2 Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive 28 (20)
contracting in the motion picture industry
2.1 Introduction 28 (1)
2.2 The mechanics of supply 29 (3)
2.3 Demand discovery and distributional 32 (5)
dynamics
2.4 Empirical box-office revenue 37 (7)
distributions
2.5 Explaining the industry 44 (2)
2.6 Conclusions 46 (2)
3 Quality evaluations and the breakdown of 48 (17)
statistical herding in the dynamics of
box-office revenue
3.1 Introduction 48 (1)
3.2 Information and demand dynamics 49 (2)
3.3 The model 51 (1)
3.4 Estimates 52 (4)
3.5 The stable Paretian model 56 (1)
3.6 Bifurcation at phase transitions 57 (3)
3.7 Discussion of results 60 (2)
3.8 Conclusions 62 (3)
PART II "Wild" uncertainty, tough decisions and 65 (74)
false beliefs
4 Uncertainty in the movie industry: can 71 (28)
star power reduce the terror of the box
office?
4.1 Introduction 71 (1)
4.2 Related literature 72 (1)
4.3 Modeling star power 73 (4)
4.4 The movie data 77 (7)
4.5 Estimation results 84 (12)
4.6 Choosing among movie projects 96 (2)
4.7 Conclusions 98 (1)
5 Does Hollywood make too many R-rated 99 (23)
movies?: risk, stochastic dominance and the
illusion of expectation
5.1 Introduction 99 (2)
5.2 Motion picture production by ratings 101 (2)
5.3 Choosing among uncertain movie projects 103 (5)
5.4 Ranking by success rates 108 (2)
5.5 Ranking by stochastic dominance 110 (10)
5.6 Conclusions 120 (2)
6 Big budgets, big openings and legs: 122 (17)
analysis of the blockbuster strategy
6.1 Introduction 122 (1)
6.2 The blockbuster and the information 123 (2)
cascade
6.3 Movie industry data and summary 125 (4)
statistics
6.4 A structural model of box-office 129 (8)
outcomes
6.5 Conclusions 137 (2)
PART III Judges, lawyers and the movies 139 (68)
7 Motion picture antitrust: the Paramount 143 (33)
cases revisited
7.1 The essential economics of motion 145 (6)
pictures
7.2 The feature motion picture 151 (3)
7.3 Integration and licensing 154 (12)
7.4 The courts' analyses 166 (4)
7.5 Paramount's effects 170 (4)
7.6 Conclusions 174 (2)
8 Was the antitrust action that broke up the 176 (14)
movie studios good for the movies?: evidence
from the stock market
8.1 Introduction 176 (2)
8.2 The studio system 178 (1)
8.3 The Paramount litigation 178 (3)
8.4 Stock prices 181 (5)
8.5 The feasibility of a motion picture 186 (2)
cartel
8.6 Winners and losers 188 (1)
8.7 Conclusions 189 (1)
9 Stochastic market structure: concentration 190 (17)
measures and motion picture antitrust
9.1 Introduction 190 (1)
9.2 Market power: theory and policy 191 (2)
9.3 Concentration in United States v. 193 (1)
Paramount Pictures
9.4 Instability of concentration and shares 194 (6)
9.5 Turnover of the leading firms 200 (2)
9.6 Standard models do not apply to motion 202 (2)
pictures
9.7 The probability distribution of the HHI 204 (2)
9.8 Conclusions 206 (1)
PART IV A business of extremes 207 (60)
10 Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian 211 (20)
hypothesis and the curse of the superstar
10.1 Introduction 211 (2)
10.2 The stable hypothesis 213 (1)
10.3 Motion picture profit 214 (2)
10.4 The stable distribution 216 (1)
10.5 Stable estimation and diagnostics 217 (2)
10.6 Probability under the stable model 219 (1)
10.7 "Nobody knows" 220 (1)
10.8 Conditional stable analysis and 221 (2)
superstars
10.9 Sample average and expected value 223 (2)
10.10 The curse of the superstar 225 (1)
10.11 Success breeds success 226 (1)
10.12 Cost momentum and the angel's 227 (1)
nightmare
10.13 Stable distribution and contracting 228 (2)
10.14 Conclusions 230 (1)
11 Contracting with stars when "nobody knows 231 (24)
anything"
11.1 Introduction 231 (1)
11.2 On becoming a superstar 232 (3)
11.3 Artists and kurtosis 235 (3)
11.4 Career expectations and opportunities 238 (1)
11.5 Luck or talent? 239 (4)
11.6 Competing for stars 243 (2)
11.7 Artist contracts 245 (1)
11.8 Pay when you do know 246 (5)
11.9 Director contracts 251 (3)
11.10 Conclusions 254 (1)
12 How extreme uncertainty shapes the movie 255 (12)
business
12.1 Introduction 255 (1)
12.2 Complex systems 256 (2)
12.3 Universality 258 (1)
12.4 Deep order 259 (6)
12.5 Complexity and the stable Paretian 265 (2)
distribution
Epilogue: can you manage a business when 267 (9)
"nobody knows anything"?
Probabilities 268 (1)
Inside and outside the studio 268 (1)
Risk and decision bias 269 (1)
Narrow framing and sure things 270 (1)
Financing movies 271 (2)
Causality and Kim Basinger 273 (2)
A skeptical attitude 275 (1)
Notes 276 (22)
Bibliography 298 (7)
Index 305